New data shows slowing market, dropping home prices in San Francisco

Newly released data is out for San Francisco’s real estate market, and it shows some pretty dramatic changes, year-over-year. The new data compares August of this year to August of last year for homes and condos in the City of San Francisco. Obviously, the real estate market has been crazy, especially over the past few months, but it’s always interesting to look back exactly one year and see what’s changed in terms of buying or selling a home in San Francisco.

The single-family housing market

To begin with, we’re seeing some big changes with single-family homes. If you’ve noticed fewer homes hitting the market lately, that’s exactly what’s happening. When comparing this August to last, the number of new listings that hit the market was down more than 13-percent. We saw 239 new listings this August, but 277 last August. 

Pending sales were also down, but this time by about 25-percent, year-over-year. In August 2022 there were 169 pending sales, but we had 226 pending sales in San Francisco last August. As for the number of homes sold, the data stayed much the same. We saw a decrease of more than 27-percent. This August there were 185 homes that sold during the month, but 256 homes sold last August. When comparing the two months, we saw a big decrease in activity for the residential real estate market, year-over-year.

The median sales price for a single-family home went from around $1.8 million to $1.6 million, meaning a drop of about 12-percent. The average sales price was down almost eight-percent, year-over-year. The data proves the average sales price and median sales price have both decreased significantly in just one year. Although it was just a slight difference, homes in San Francisco this August did sit on the market an average of one day longer than they did a year ago. 

When it comes to the number of homes left on the market, there were fewer homes for sale at the end of August 2022 than there were at the end of August 2021. The year-over-year, total inventory at the end of the month was down more than 19-percent. We’re beginning to see real signs that inventory levels and supply are down, but prices for single-family homes are also down.

It's common for homes in San Francisco to sell over list price, but the gap isn’t wide as it has been in the past. A year ago, homes were selling, on average, about 16-percent above list price. This August the gap was cut in half to an average of about eight-percent over list price. Even though we saw around a 10-percent decrease in the percentage of homes selling over list price, in August 2022 it was still more than 75-percent of single-family homes sold in the City of San Francisco.

The Condo/TIC/Co-op market

It’s also interesting to see some of the new data in terms of condos, TIC, and co-ops. The number of new listings to hit the market in August 2022 was down about 20-percent from the 388 new listings we saw last August. Pending sales were down for the month about 29-percent, as pending sales went from 316 in August 2021 to 224 in August 2022. Sold listings followed the same trend as single-family homes. The condo market in San Francisco for August saw a year-over-year drop of nearly 33-percent. Sold listings dropped from 348 to 234 when comparing the two months. 

Like single-family homes, the median sales price for condos in San Francisco in August 2022 was down 14-percent, year-over-year. The median sales price went from $1.15 million to around $987,000. The average sales price dropped even more. The average sales price for condos went from around $1.425 million to $1.133 million, which was around a 20-percent decrease, year-over-year. To sum it up, the data shows a significant decrease in prices for condos in the City of San Francisco in just one year. 

In terms of average days on the market, there was a more obvious change than with single-family homes. Last August condos sat on the market an average of 43-days in San Francisco, which increased about 18-percent to 51 days, on average, this August. There were fewer active listings left at the end of the month still for sale. That number went from 1,025 last August to 881 this August, which was a decrease of about 14-percent. 

We also noticed fewer single-family homes selling above asking price this August, and the same was true for condos. About 37-percent of condos in San Francisco sold for above asking price in August 2022, which was almost a 32-percent drop over the previous August. In August 2021, condos were selling for about four-percent over asking, on average. This August, condos were selling, on average, for basically asking price. 

Usually, when supply is lower, prices are higher in real estate. The latest data out of the City of San Francisco shows supply and activity down, but so are prices.